Wouldn’t it be great, we’ve probably all thought to ourselves over the past few days … a democratic Iran, no longer talking about destroying Israel, putting aside its quest for nuclear power, making nice with other nations in the gulf.
Well, if you believe that is really going to happen, I have some beach front property in New Jersey I’d like to show you.
While images of young well-off students and professionals demonstrating in Northern Tehran certainly plays into the wish fulfillment that the west has for Iran, I’m afraid that’s all it really is – a dream after all.
I’ve been writing about Iran for a long time. It helps a lot that my wife is a Middle East scholar – as she says, Iran is in the Middle East because we want it to be there – and she constantly feeds me books, political reports, movies … my favorites are “Children of Heaven” and “Persepolis” … the best blogs to read, etc. I also covered the country for several years when I was writing the Daily Update on Terrorism and Security for The Christian Science Monitor.
And I strongly believe that what are seeing in Iran is something like a reality based TV show. It’s based on a real incident, but it’s still being shaped by the show’s writers and director (ie, the western media) to be the most interesting to a Western audience. We’re only seeing the bits of tape that conform to what the western media (whicg represent us) want the story to be. It’s real but it’s not reality.
First, this is most definitely NOT a national revolution. This is a protest largely based, as I said, in northern Tehran, the more affluent and prosperous area of the city where most of the universities are located as are (surprised) the hotels where most western journalists stay. As Time’s Joe Klein (who just got back from Tehran) noted in an interview on CNN yesterday, there is no protest at all in southern Tehran, the largest part of the city where the poor and less-educated live. This is Ahmadinejad ’s base. And there is almost no protest at all in rural areas. The regime is firmly in command in most of the country, and the more repressive elements like the Revolutionary Guard have yet to really make their presence felt.
You know, this beginning to sound like Beijing 20 years ago.
Now, there is always the chance that a revolt driven by a relatively small number of the country’s population will succeed in overthrowing the country’s regime. Especially in Iran, where one revolution has already done that. But that was a revolt approved by the large majority of the people against a hated despot. This is not the same situation. If there is hatred of Ahmedinejad it comes no where near close to the hatred felt for the Shah. It’s just not going to happen.
Meanwhile, the suggestion that Mousavi is Obama and Ahmadinejad is Bush is just ridiculous. Come on people. Mousavi is certainly more “liberal” in terms of his opponent (that certainly the way we want to see it in the west), but Obama (the real one) is absolutely correct when he says there will be little difference between the two. We all know why – the president doesn’t get to call all the shots in Iran. Mousavi, a former premier under the mullahs, for heaven’s sake, is a saavy politician and he is probably correct in thinking the election was stolen. But Mousavi is not Iran’s Obama – he is Iran’s John Kerry. He talks a great game, but he’s been part of the political establishment for a long time.
And the man behind a lot of what’s happening, former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has his own agenda in these demonstrations. Rafsanjani is a member of the Assembly of Experts, the group that gets to pick the next Supreme Leader. And guess what? Rafsanjani wants to be that guy. It’s a little like the way Ratzinger worked the College of Cardinals to be pope. But at least the guy he wanted to replace had the decency to die first.
By the way, the young people in Iran are not protesting so that Iran will stop its nuclear program, just in case we need to be reminded. They are looking for more personal freedoms, not to change foreign policy. They are doing this for themselves, not for us. And most certainly not because we might want something amazing to happen.
Democracy already exists in Iran in a limited fashion. And real democracy will come to Iran one day, although it may not look like what we call democracy in America. But what is happening in Tehran is a small step, not a giant leap. I’m afraid not that much is really going to change.
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What a refreshing moment it was to read this. So much over-romanticized utopian thinking is coming from a vocal group online and perpetuated by MSM, who was caught out missing the story last week and are now scrambling. I also have family ties to experts in this area, and their opinion matches yours, particularly with regard to the key players in this drama.
What concerns me is that the energy spent with this would be better spent raising awareness about health care reform and domestic issues, but the lofty mission of promoting democracy abroad seems to be shoving true democracy at home into the back seat.
Interesting comment about Mousavi from Mohsen Makhmalbaf authorized by Mousavi entitled “I speak for Mousavi. And Iran.”
That Iran will not look Western we agree on. Given today’s developments the possibility of a clamp down is very likely. The question is where the police and military line up. During the time of the Shah they abandoned him. The other wild card is the issue of corruption which is the main reason why the poor supported Ahmadinejad. If the current protesters are viewed as corrupt elites then this won’t go far.
Here is that Mark Levine piece from Al Jazeera. It’s the one source that I trust on this issue. Western media has too much baggage. On Iran, Al Jazeera is going to call it as it really sees it.
http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/06/200961781431119985.html
Hey Rich
Actually, I think I cast this as a middle to upper class revolt. Students and young professionals. And that’s what it is. But it is not a national revolt. Not yet, anyway. The poor (who are the vast majority in Iran) are behind Ahmedinejad and that’s just the reality of the situation.
I really believe we in the west are projecting our wishes on this strife. It could result in some minor changes in Iran, but this is not what we want it to be. This is not the Berlin Wall coming down, as much as we might want it to be. And it’s my bet that the next few days will show that. I really hope I’m wrong. I would love to be wrong. But I don’t think I am.
Mark Levine, who I trust on Iran a lot, has a really good look at the story. He sees a possibility of change, but also, a real possibility that the Iranian establishment will just decide to clamp down. The next few days will tell.
And I particularly agree that if Iran does “liberalize” it will be only within an Iranian context, not a western one. We might see more hand holding and hear rock music in Tehran. But Iranians will still want nuclear power (even if it turns out they don’t want nuclear weapons). And they will want to do it themselves. The main road block will still be there, regardless of what happens.
Cheers
Tom
The BBC is mistranslating the death to England chants as death to the West. The U.S. is not being mentioned at all. Some recent tweets:
rt @persiankiwiConfirmed – Saturday Sea of Green rally – Enghelab Sq – 4pm – Mousavi, Karoubi and Khatami will attend – #Iranelection
Ansar Hezbollah is out in force:
IranDemokratia Basij-animals are marching to Rafsandjani’s house!! this is huge. #iranelection RT RT Rafsanjani going to be arrested??
GhalamNews: Over 50 law academics condemn the recent violence against innocent people & demand an end to this violence #IranElection
Andrew Sullivan’s take on Khamenei’s speech:
Khamenei’s message at Friday prayers offered no compromise whatsoever. It had all the usual U.S. and Zionist conspiracy theories. What was most troubling was that he said that it would be the people’s fault if “violence” happened. You speak of hatred and there is a lot hatred, not at Ahmadinejad but at Khamenei. The death to the dictator banners reference the latter.
Even though Moussavi is waaaaay to the right of the U.S. political spectrum the situation has changed from him merely being elected which would have changed little to nothing. This has stopped being about the candidates. I disagree with your assessment that this is a student-only protest like 1999 when the rebellion was crushed. Time will tell if the middle-class merchants who have joined and protests in other cities such as the huge rally in Esfehan give it enough critical mass. Throughout Iran you can set your watch at night from the Allahu Akbars. As to the Northern/Southern Tehran divide this was an interesting tweet: