What concerns me is that the energy spent with this would be better spent raising awareness about health care reform and domestic issues, but the lofty mission of promoting democracy abroad seems to be shoving true democracy at home into the back seat.

People say that Mousavi won’t change anything as he is part of the establishment. That is correct to a degree because they wouldn’t let anyone who is not in their circle rise to seniority. But not all members of a family are alike, and for Mousavi it is useful to understand how he has changed over time.

Before the revolution, Mousavi was a religious intellectual and an artist, who supported radical change but did not support the mullahs. After the revolution, when all religious intellectuals and even leftists backed Khomeini, he served as prime minister for eight years. The economy was stable, and he did not order the killings of opponents, or become corrupt.

In order to neuralise his power, the position of prime minister was eliminated from the constitution and he was pushed out of politics. So Mousavi returned to the world of artists because in a country where there are no real political parties, artists can act as a party. The artists supported Khatami and now they support Mousavi.

Previously, he was revolutionary, because everyone inside the system was a revolutionary. But now he’s a reformer. Now he knows Gandhi – before he knew only Che Guevara. If we gain power through aggression we would have to keep it through aggression. That is why we’re having a green revolution, defined by peace and democracy.

http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/06/200961781431119985.html

Actually, I think I cast this as a middle to upper class revolt. Students and young professionals. And that’s what it is. But it is not a national revolt. Not yet, anyway. The poor (who are the vast majority in Iran) are behind Ahmedinejad and that’s just the reality of the situation.

I really believe we in the west are projecting our wishes on this strife. It could result in some minor changes in Iran, but this is not what we want it to be. This is not the Berlin Wall coming down, as much as we might want it to be. And it’s my bet that the next few days will show that. I really hope I’m wrong. I would love to be wrong. But I don’t think I am.

Mark Levine, who I trust on Iran a lot, has a really good look at the story. He sees a possibility of change, but also, a real possibility that the Iranian establishment will just decide to clamp down. The next few days will tell.

And I particularly agree that if Iran does “liberalize” it will be only within an Iranian context, not a western one. We might see more hand holding and hear rock music in Tehran. But Iranians will still want nuclear power (even if it turns out they don’t want nuclear weapons). And they will want to do it themselves. The main road block will still be there, regardless of what happens.

Cheers

Tom

rt @persiankiwiConfirmed – Saturday Sea of Green rally – Enghelab Sq – 4pm – Mousavi, Karoubi and Khatami will attend – #Iranelection

Ansar Hezbollah is out in force:

IranDemokratia Basij-animals are marching to Rafsandjani’s house!! this is huge. #iranelection RT RT Rafsanjani going to be arrested??

GhalamNews: Over 50 law academics condemn the recent violence against innocent people & demand an end to this violence #IranElection